Life in the Age of Corona

Mood Swings

Another rainy day, at least until noon, which I find depressing. The sun came out later in the afternoon, which lightens my mood immensely. Of course we used the sunny break over lunch for an extensive walk, today a little further afield from our hood. We found a nice walk form here to Westmoreland Park coming back via Little Falls Park.

Nature is beautiful! Slowly the trees are starting to sprout leaves and spring flowers are out all over – just not in my garden, where all of two Daffodils are in bloom as well as my spring Camelia.

We are learning to find enjoyment in the little things. It is the evenings that get long. Once the computer is turned off for the day. When there is no food to cook because we did that for lunch – and today was left over day anyway -. Once there are no more chores. Just downtime.

We may take the bikes for another spin and maybe I can coerce EM into taking Ukemi for me (as long as I promise not to make her fall, not sure I am skilled enough in the art to guarantee that one). Out of a sense of frustration with the low ceilings in my house which makes the use of a Jo a pain, and the rain I ordered a bokken yesterday. I was going to wait until my next trip to Cape Town as Andersen Sensei was going to make one for me, but that, of course, is also shelved for the foreseeable. I invested in a lowly practice sword which will hopefully arrive by the end of the week. At least I may then get to do my 100 - or in a few months my 1.000 - cuts a day. 

Last night we tried another round of chess as a means of diversion – it was a killing. We will see if tonight’s game is going to be more sophisticated. So all in all still trying to figure out the entertainment side.

Then, of course, there is the question of supplies. We are good until Friday. However, at this stage I am so terrified of contracting this evil disease that I am seriously contemplating online shopping and delivery times are often as a week into the future (says the Listserv). The only time I have ever bought groceries online was when I stuck on my couch for two months post foot surgery.

So I browsed Wholefoods, Giant and finally (thank you Listserve) Instacart, which enables orders from multiple stores (so if I want Kohlrabi it will suggest a store which has it). This feature is neat as is maybe the ability to procure toilet paper (which is not to be found on any store shelf). However, I find that this is not really how I cook.

Our weekly meal plans are typically inspired by what is on the market/ I can track down in a supermarket, rather than the shopping being inspired by a meal plan. Not sure if I can overcome this habit. As a result, I will need to decide whether or not to the risk of an outing to the supermarket; and if, yes, which one? Never in my life did I imagine I would think about open-air parking versus underground and what may be more or less of a risk. Or which market to go to, because it might have a different selection, rather than first going to one and then the other. Now the ability to shop at multiple markets or even the farmers market seems like a luxury.

Our world has gotten very small. And I make it smaller too. I have a key, I have permission, other than the distance, nothing should stop me from hopping into my car and spending a half-hour rolling around the matt. But somehow I do not. Irrationally the trip through deserted streets to a deserted dojo in a deserted neighborhood seems dangerous.

Speaking to my mum today she also noted how much freedom we had, how many choices. How carefree it made life. Not that at the time we necessarily felt this to be the privilege it in hindsight was.

This takes me back to what life in a year may look like. Will the world go back to its global physical connectivity? How will it impact my life plan – a substantial part of revolves around the ability to move between countries so as not to say continents. If humanity finds a cure and a vaccine, I suspect the world will return to some semblance of what we called normal. Should it? And if it does, will we appreciate what we have more? I will further think about it. Maybe I will even come up with an answer in the coming months of confinement.

Saw a five-year-old Ted Talk by Bill Gates. Interesting that in 2015 his focus was on the next epidemic as the biggest threat to society/ humanity. His point: We are not ready, the world needs to unit so that it is prepared. As we can all see now, he was right. In fact, the US administration still seems to be engaged in don’t hear, don’t see policy with testing still not happening. It will be on the residents to realize the need to #stayathome.

On that note, an infectious disease epidemiologist on our listserv had this to say: “We are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I am also tagging my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post. Please correct me if I am wrong (seriously). Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous. First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn’t have to. This may lead some people to think that social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to an understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying around you. You may feel like giving in. Don’t. Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it, of course, increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain. In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far. Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in a grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty. So everyone, stay strong, #stayhome.

I am finding that people are coming up with entertainment, like this zookeeper in Melbourne. Or more virtually some rather funny posts about the virus. 

The virus is starting to hit closer to home, so maintaining a sense of humor, while critical, is becoming harder. The son of a friend (mid twenties!) is probably infected, as are a number of our colleagues around the globe. But, from our colleagues in China we are also learning that there is a way to go back to life. Wuhan is doing just that: Easing lockdown as world the rest of the world is commencing or in the midst of the pandemic. So, there is hope.

In the meantime, enjoy the onset of spring.