Monday, April 6th, 2020
I have gotten several notifications from Spirit Airlines:
the departure gate has changed,
the flight is delayed.
This reminds me that we were supposed to be on our way to Puerto Rico today for a week filled of sun and diving. Alas, it is instead the beginning of another work week at home starting with that 6am call. It is a beautiful day; sunny, pleasantly warm. We are having the most beautiful spring.
Reasonably productive day, I assume because of the early start. Got a lot done in the morning and have new inspirations for the Supply Chain Finance Handbook that has been work in progress for over a year now. Hoping to wrap that up sooner rather than later. Also, hopefully that note on the application of Artificial Intelligence in the financial services industry is finally done.
Part of my productivity has been inspired by recent reads about how technology will help adapt to the present extremity. Physical mobility can be reduced by shifting many activities into cyberspace. Offices, schools, universities, GP surgeries and other work centers are likely to change permanently. Virtual communities set up during the epidemic have enabled people to get to know one another better than they ever did before. Industries rapidly changing include retail, last-mile delivery, health and wellness, online/ remote work, entertainment. It is fascinating to see what is all popping up in the market and how quickly and creatively solutions are being developed to everyday challenges of life.
The other interesting read was a synthesis of Warren Buffets' letters to his shareholders over the past 50 years or so. Much of this is common sense. What is interesting is his take on management compensation, while for other reasons, I think he has a point. I find it very difficult to justify for a single manager to be compensated in the millions or tens of millions. Rarely is their contribution to the success of a company commensurate to their performance, and frankly if one rewards success, failure should be punished in equal measure.
My prediction is that the current pandemic is likely to reopen the discussion of manager compensation, especially in light of millions losing their income, whether fully or partially and with taxpayers (and remember those are mainly the little guys) bailing companies out at scale. The compensation discussion goes hand in hand with society's definition of success. Traditional models of growth (in shareholder value, profit, production, return) are no longer contemporary. As we think about new work models, new ways of doing things as a result of the pandemic, we also need to rethink our definitions of success. Should success not also be a function of resilience? Retaining motivated staff through not only fair compensation but a rewarding work environment enabling people to excel because they subscribe to the cause? This for me has always been far more of a motivation than the monthly paycheck.
On technology: there must be a way to enable voting without physically showing up at a polling station. Reading about the elections in Wisconsin has triggered this. In Europe (except the UK) all voters are sent an invitation to vote by mail, which they can use to request a ballot to vote by mail. Of course people do need to register their address with local authorities and everyone has a national ID, so there is a pretty clear understanding who is where.
Incidentally, globally the WBG promotes national IDs as a means to for instance ensure access to finance and other services. Both of the financial institutions I bank with in the US allow me to vote for board candidates online by sending me a personalized code. So it appears there are technology solutions out there and it is a question of lack of willingness, which is what the article also suggests. So much for the greatest democracy in the world.
Worldwide cases continue to increase, though the majority of increases seem to now come from the US with over 355k confirmed cases, and that in a country that still dose not have the ability to test widely, so likely real infection rates are much higher.
In Italy the curve is coming down noticeably and Spain seems to flatten and France is poised to peak, so there is hope. The UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, who tested positive for the virus ten days ago, has now been admitted to intensive care. While one does not wish this on anyone, it does seem there is some form of cosmic justice that those in denial the longest are also affected.
While the official press briefing by 45 is again a wild rant and rave against governors who are blamed for the situation and at the same time features incoherent claims about the worst being behind the US, grocery workers are increasingly infected and dying and meat plants. I am reasonably certain that not only infection rates, but also death rates are much higher than reported, sad state of affairs.
To distract myself, I shall now I go and fight those Voles digging up my back garden – apparently they do not like the smell ofcastor oil.