Wednesday, February 24th, 2021
After what feels like weeks of snow, ice rain, freezing winds, clear crisp days followed by dull grey dampness, today was a bright sunny day with temperatures around 12C giving the impression that spring has arrived. From years past I know this is an illusion. I have seen snow in mid-April and hated it. Coming back from Cuba I had been well into my summer mood, just to return to winter and see all my herbs freeze.
This year spring cannot come soon enough with all of us being cooped up at home all the time life is depressing enough without adding grey, rain and freezing cold into the mix. All in all we managed to get through the winter reasonably well, even enjoying some social functions, but the lack of breaks, like a ski trip or plans for a trip over spring break or other quick get-aways are beginning to take their toll.
Thankfully there is light at the end of the tunnel, or so I would like to believe. As a global nomad I meticulously monitor news on travel and when this may become widely possible again. The experts are very much divided on this issue and predictions vary from summer 2021 to winter 2023, which I do not find an appealing prospect. IATA is now looking for ways to enable travel again with an APP capturing passenger testing, infection and vaccination data. This data is shareable across all participating airlines. I am not sure how I feel about such data being available. It feels rather Orwellian. I suspect though that at the end of the day anyone wishing to travel will succumb. And it is not unlikely that I will be among the first of this number.
The news on a return to normalcy is rather speculative. Currently lockdowns are maintained, mask wearing and social distancing continue to be encouraged in an effort to curd the spread of virus variants which could bring a fourth wave, something health experts fear can set the world back by months and even lead to vaccine resistant mutants. These measures are designed to curb the spread until significant parts of the population have been inoculated, not until herd immunity is achieved, but until there are enough vaccinated people around to curb the spread; say 40-50% of a countries’ population. I have a lot of confidence that this can be achieved by the summer, even with all the current hiccups in booking sites, vaccine supplies and so on.
While the world is focusing on two or three vaccines developed in Europe and the USA, other vaccine developments are largely ignored, even though they are significant in terms of production and reaching poorer nations. First and foremost both the Chinese and the Russian vaccines are already shipping around the globe. The next significant exporter of medical teams and drugs is Cuba, which the world seems to be largely ignoring. Given Cuba’s long history of being ostracized they have had to develop everything locally, so now have a very capable health and pharmaceutical industry. Cuba is developing several vaccines simultaneously and has the capacity to produce at scale. They will have more than enough to not only vaccinate their population, but export to nations in need. And likely there will be many given that the American / European vaccines have been pre-order by the wealthy countries, de facto denying poor countries access as there are no doses to buy even if they could afford them.
COVAX a global initiative ensuring poor and low-income countries can access vaccines is beginning its roll out with Ghana the first country to receive a vaccine delivery. The doses are mostly manufactured in India the fact that the Indian government has ordered India first and is delaying delivery to third parties is not helping. As a result, to few doses are going to for instance Africa, setting the continent back, despite all good intentions to make vaccination a global and equitable effort. As a German proverb says: the skin is closer than the hair, as in we tend to look out for ourselves before looking out for others and vaccine distribution is just that. I am not sure as to the wisdom of vaccinating very few but in many countries. I worry it will lead to vaccine resistant strains.
The FDA is about to approve the Johnson & Johnson vaccine having found it to be safe and effective after reviewing the data submitted by the company. This would mean an additional forty million shots become available by March, allowing for an additional 40 million people to be vaccinated in the USA. Whether poorer countries will have access to the Johnson & Johnson remains to be seen. They at least have shipped significant doses to South Africa to demonstrate efficacy against the South African strain.
Meanwhile in the USA private healthcare providers are found to be vaccinating their wealthy customers rather than those eligible according to state policies. While typical for the US mentality, this is not okay. I think this should result in the entire chain to be taken of the vaccine distribution list (nationwide) with the doses confiscated distributed through other providers.
Over the past six months there have been repeated concerns over reinfections. These do happen. This is not necessarily a bad thing as we know from the flu. Typically, the body remembers the first infection and as a result, reinfections tend to be far less severe. There are of course exceptions when the body suffers from amnesia, but these cases are far and few between. Studies also indicate that a previous infection delivers the same protection as a vaccine, so that is good news.
Today’s numbers: New reported cases are at 67.8k million, a small but steady increase every day since the low of 50k a week ago, to bring the US total to 29.8 million. I attribute this to Super Bowl Sunday. The fall out at least is not as bad as the holiday travel fall out which saw daily infections of up to 300k. So there is hope to retain control over the spread until vaccination has ramped up significantly. Maryland is planning to administer 100k shots per day as of March. At that rate it would take 60 days for every resident in Maryland to receive a shot, not a bad outlook!